Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts CRPG?

CRPG + Martial Arts

Only 13 developers shipped a Martial-Arts CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Beast Saga, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×18 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $6.2k. Revenue is up 375% on the market; 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 375% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $380k → $14k → $60k → $238k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Median $26k (exactly $26,422)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,830)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 37
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 375% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 6,097 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.2k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  2. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  5. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  6. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  7. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  8. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  9. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $19k · 27 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Sword and Fairy 7 older $29.99 15,567 72% 467k $14M (exactly $14,005,630) 软星科技(SoftStarlight)
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
侠客风云传前传(Tale of Wuxia:The Pre-Sequel) older $16.99 2,505 79% 75k $1.3M (exactly $1,276,798) Heluo Studio
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Xuan-Yuan Sword: The Gate of Firmament older $14.99 1,301 71% 39k $585k (exactly $585,060) DOMO Studio, SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Immortal Family older $13.99 1,213 54% 36k $509k (exactly $509,096) 一起来修仙工作室
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Weird RPG 2 $9.99 795 92% 24k $238k (exactly $238,262) yuzhen
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
Twelves:Shadow $12.99 154 35% 4.6k $60k (exactly $60,014) JuLu Studio
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games
小小无常 Little Wu Chang $12.99 36 88% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) 小小无常游戏工作室
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.