Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Souls-like

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a CRPG Souls-like?

CRPG + Souls-like

Only 12 developers shipped a CRPG Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Drova - Forsaken Kin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×4732 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Souls-like
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $4.8k → $1.6M → $3.3k → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Souls-like: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,260)
Median $20k (exactly $20,236)
Top 25% $248k (exactly $248,173)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 43
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Souls-like
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 16,125 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $19k · 27 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
EdgeOfTheAbyssAwaken older $18.99 542 67% 16k $309k (exactly $308,777) TrinityBJ
Your Mom $1.99 4,157 95% 125k $248k (exactly $248,173) Mom Game
Weird RPG 2 $9.99 795 92% 24k $238k (exactly $238,262) yuzhen
Immortal Heritage · EA older $39.99 89 84% 2.7k $107k (exactly $106,773) LC.Game
Dragon Extinction · EA older $14.99 80 77% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Xefier Games Inc.
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
小小无常 Little Wu Chang $12.99 36 88% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) 小小无常游戏工作室
Drowning Ashes · EA $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Elston Studios
Goblin: Mutation $3.00 14 21% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,260) richard
Dark Age Gladiator $15.99 1 0% 30 $480 (exactly $480) Rotacat Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.