Games › CRPG › CRPG + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel CRPG?
CRPG + Visual Novel
Of 123 developers who shipped a Visual Novel CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×326 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 153 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $270 (exactly $270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,938) |
| Top 25% | $37k (exactly $36,949) |
| Top 5% | $488k (exactly $488,286) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 123 |
| Released games | 301 |
| Announced | 153 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- CRPG
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 28,531 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M 
Esoteric Ebb 2026 · $6.5M 
The Thaumaturge 2024 · $4.1M 
Mandate Of Heaven 2025 · $2.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
| | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
| | The Thaumaturge | older | $34.99 | 3,888 81% | 117k | $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) | Fool's Theory |
| | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | Gamedec - Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 1,119 78% | 34k | $1.0M (exactly $1,006,764) | Anshar Studios |
 | Agarest: Generations of War | older | $14.99 | 1,668 70% | 50k | $750k (exactly $750,100) | Idea Factory |
 | 咸鱼殿下 / My journey | $11.99 | 1,979 85% | 59k | $712k (exactly $711,846) | 大聪明工作室 | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Hua Manlou | $10.99 | 1,481 97% | 44k | $488k (exactly $488,286) | 初域游戏 | |
 | Handyman Fantasy | $7.99 | 1,607 95% | 48k | $385k (exactly $385,198) | SupaShinKen Studio | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | 哎呦!这么多美女呀! | $18.99 | 609 91% | 18k | $347k (exactly $346,947) | Hangzhou Miqi Technology Co.,Ltd |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.