Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics CRPG?

CRPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 89 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 147 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 147 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $23k → $11k → $3.4k → $1.5k → $67k → $3.9k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,848)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,012)
Top 5% $969k (exactly $969,362)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 255
Announced 147
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Tactical RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 62,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
New Arc Line · EA $24.99 687 68% 21k $515k (exactly $515,044) Dreamate

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.