Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based CRPG?

CRPG + Turn-Based

Only 17 developers shipped a Turn-Based CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MENACE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $14M, ×9835 the market median. Revenue is up 1945% on the market; 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1945% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $94k → $313k → $9.0k → $6.7k → $77k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,892)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $14,733,516)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 162
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1945% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Character Customization, Choices Matter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Isometric, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 34,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.9k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $14M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.9k. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
The Temple of Elemental Evil $9.99 360 71% 11k $108k (exactly $107,892) Troika Games
Dungeon Antiqua 2 $8.99 284 95% 8.5k $77k (exactly $76,595) Shiromofu Factory
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Brány Skeldalu $4.99 89 92% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Napoleon Games
DROD RPG 2: A Courageous Rescue $24.99 12 83% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Caravel Games
Beat the Humans $4.99 58 74% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Dochungryest

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.