Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding CRPG?

CRPG + Deckbuilding

Only 12 developers shipped a Deckbuilding CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×526 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $9.0k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $19k (exactly $18,708)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 32
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Deckbuilding
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,585 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Shards of Order $9.99 578 90% 17k $173k (exactly $173,227) Fardust
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
RLLL: Tower of Choices $9.99 77 72% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Team5D
Willow Guard $15.99 39 89% 1.2k $19k (exactly $18,708) MiTale
Three Kingdoms Part One: Battle of Zhuo County $14.99 30 60% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) JiMoYou
Eternal Dreams: Poker RPG $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Playmage
Hexa Vanguard $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Hexa Devs
Soul's Gambit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Team Husk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.