Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural CRPG?

CRPG + Supernatural

Only 15 developers shipped a Supernatural CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $210 against a market of $1.5k. 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 29 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $958 → $180
Outcomes for CRPG + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,664)
Top 5% $361k (exactly $361,019)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 28
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 761 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $210, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Dead Static Drive $29.99 43 37% 1.3k $39k (exactly $38,687) Reuben Games
Dungeon of Erotic Master Plus older $12.99 76 85% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Rushimarudo
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz
Advent Crossroad older $9.99 30 90% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) NANKADA
Case 02: Paranormal Evil older $5.99 37 94% 1.1k $6.6k (exactly $6,649) Sounding Stone / 老奉毊, MaouCat Studio /… (Sounding Stone / 老奉毊, MaouCat Studio / 魔王貓工作室)
[Neolithic]To the End · EA older $6.99 28 82% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) orochi2k
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
Shonen Adventure : The Dual Blades Hero older $13.99 5 60% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Melvyn Boutel
Tits and Shadows older $2.99 22 86% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) LuQui
Ortho Blaze $13.99 4 25% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) Paracelsus Team
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me
幻想症 Fantasy illness $0.99 25 88% 750 $742 (exactly $742) 庆庆侠
Fake Ducks: Spooky Chronicles $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Mattia De Berardinis
YOIN: The shadow of dawn $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hypothesis Games
学校七不思议怪谈 $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Dawn Morning Song Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.