Should I ship a Sci-fi CRPG?
CRPG + Sci-fi
Of 47 developers who shipped a Sci-fi CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×834 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 99 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,415) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,388) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 47 |
| Released games | 145 |
| Announced | 99 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Character Customization, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 28,864 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader 2023 · $51M 
Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M 
Wasteland 3 2020 · $21M 
MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M 
Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
| | Battle Brothers | older | $29.99 | 26,118 87% | 784k | $23M (exactly $23,498,365) | Overhype Studios |
| | Wasteland 3 | older | $39.99 | 17,263 84% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,710,421) | inXile Entertainment |
| | MENACE | · EA | $39.99 | 12,281 90% | 368k | $15M (exactly $14,733,516) | Overhype Studios |
| | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
 | Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 16,722 95% | 502k | $5.0M (exactly $5,011,583) | Interplay Inc. |
 | Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game | older | $39.99 | 4,087 87% | 123k | $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) | Iron Tower Studio |
 | Shadowrun Returns | older | $14.99 | 9,521 88% | 286k | $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) | Harebrained Schemes |
 | Wasteland 2: Director's Cut | older | $29.99 | 4,664 82% | 140k | $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) | inXile Entertainment |
 | Fallout 2: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 13,868 93% | 416k | $4.2M (exactly $4,156,240) | Black Isle Studios |
 | Stellar Tactics | $24.99 | 1,666 77% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) | Don Wilkins | |
 | Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection | $39.99 | 657 96% | 20k | $788k (exactly $788,203) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | FANTASIAN Neo Dimension | $49.99 | 500 76% | 15k | $750k (exactly $749,850) | Mistwalker Corporation | |
 | Swordhaven: Iron Conspiracy | $24.99 | 783 75% | 23k | $587k (exactly $587,015) | AtomTeam | |
 | All in Abyss: Judge the Fake | $15.99 | 375 54% | 11k | $180k (exactly $179,888) | ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground | |
 | Entropy | · EA | $11.99 | 293 94% | 8.8k | $105k (exactly $105,392) | Lovely Hellplace |
 | ANIWARS: Call of the Void | · EA | $12.99 | 184 93% | 5.5k | $72k (exactly $71,705) | Breaker Interactive |
 | Swords and Sandals 3 Redux | $9.99 | 233 87% | 7.0k | $70k (exactly $69,830) | Whiskeybarrel Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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