Should I ship a Sandbox CRPG?
CRPG + Sandbox
Of 40 developers who shipped a Sandbox CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 91 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.0k (exactly $9,017) |
| Top 25% | $131k (exactly $131,290) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 117 |
| Announced | 91 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG, Sandbox; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Open World, Exploration
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 25,514 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M 
Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game 2015 · $5.0M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M 
Fallout 2: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game 2009 · $4.2M 
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Big Ambitions | $25.99 | 14,003 92% | 420k | $11M (exactly $10,918,139) | Hovgaard Games | |
| | Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 16,722 95% | 502k | $5.0M (exactly $5,011,583) | Interplay Inc. |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | Fallout 2: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 13,868 93% | 416k | $4.2M (exactly $4,156,240) | Black Isle Studios |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
 | TaleSpire | · EA older | $24.99 | 4,391 89% | 132k | $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) | Bouncyrock Entertainment |
 | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | UnderRail | older | $14.99 | 6,385 86% | 192k | $2.9M (exactly $2,871,334) | Stygian Software |
 | Blackthorn Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,477 69% | 104k | $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) | PersonaeGame Studio |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Beast Saga | $20.99 | 2,714 80% | 81k | $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) | 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian) | |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | Stellar Tactics | $24.99 | 1,666 77% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) | Don Wilkins | |
 | Gedonia 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 896 82% | 27k | $403k (exactly $402,931) | Kazakov Oleg |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | 沙雕之路 | $10.00 | 1,039 96% | 31k | $312k (exactly $311,700) | 馆叔 | |
 | 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) | $13.99 | 343 77% | 10k | $144k (exactly $143,957) | Moshow Games | |
 | Monarch : Medieval Remastered | $11.99 | 365 80% | 11k | $131k (exactly $131,290) | Mr.Lordy |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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