Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike CRPG?

CRPG + Roguelike

Of 57 developers who shipped a Roguelike CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 86 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 86 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $359 → $11k → $5.0k → $18k → $39k → $1.9k (still earning) → $810 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,687)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $219,118)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 153
Announced 86
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Chinese Online Game older $9.99 6,610 82% 198k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,017) 648工作室
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
StarCrawlers older $19.99 793 82% 24k $476k (exactly $475,562) Juggernaut Games
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
ANIWARS: Call of the Void · EA $12.99 184 93% 5.5k $72k (exactly $71,705) Breaker Interactive
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
Hidden Realm of the Enchantress $6.99 299 92% 9.0k $63k (exactly $62,700) T.F.A.N.C.S.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.