Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror CRPG?

CRPG + Psychological Horror

Of 31 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is up 365% on the market; 66 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 66 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $5.7k → $3.2k → $1.4k → $742 → $3.9k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,220)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 86
Announced 66
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Lore-Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 43,121 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M Pathologic 2 2019 · $10M Fear & Hunger 2: Termina 2022 · $5.1M ghostpia Season One 2023 · $522k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Pathologic 2 older $34.99 9,554 92% 287k $10M (exactly $10,028,834) Ice-Pick Lodge
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
ghostpia Season One older $19.99 871 92% 26k $522k (exactly $522,339) Chosuido, 超水道
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
Mugen Souls older $19.99 249 69% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Idea Factory
Hand Simulator: Rendezvous older $2.99 1,654 87% 50k $148k (exactly $148,364) Alice Pie
暴杀残雨之夜 $6.00 779 98% 23k $140k (exactly $140,220) 茶斩刀制作组
CaseCracker3 $12.99 359 84% 11k $140k (exactly $139,902) BlackRobe
Songs of Rats $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Tesseract Games
Subway Exorcist Girl $1.99 306 82% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,268) 纤指游戏
禁地直播 $4.99 109 88% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,317) Say Hi Hi
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment
猩红梦魇 The Nightmare of Scarlet Tempest $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) 拉莱椰可可
OTHERS $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Sicosiber

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.