Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological CRPG?

CRPG + Psychological

Of 20 developers who shipped a Psychological CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 280% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $418 → $1.3k → $3.9k → $1.9k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $37,425)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 41
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
桂花落 $4.99 250 93% 7.5k $37k (exactly $37,425) 脆报纸工作室
禁地直播 $4.99 109 88% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,317) Say Hi Hi
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment
Day Zero · EA $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Imdie Studios
AI公寓:虚拟证言 older $11.99 16 43% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) IntelliPlay
残世界的鸢尾花 older $4.99 29 75% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) 2D_猫
На недельку до второго $4.99 26 100% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) UrbanWanderer
EVIL older $5.99 17 76% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) SpoocleMacBoogle
1406 older $0.99 92 42% 2.8k $2.7k (exactly $2,732) VikTor
Chilling Silence $3.99 16 56% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) podushki
Maldives in Dream $3.99 11 63% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) MDIDGame
KEEP MOVING $7.99 3 33% 90 $719 (exactly $719) VArtStyleGames
Chinese Bar Love Simulation Game $6.99 3 0% 90 $629 (exactly $629) 画往时文化
Doomsday Draft $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Palm and Stars

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.