Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature CRPG?

CRPG + Nature

Only 19 developers shipped a Nature CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, LumenTale: Memories of Trey, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $840k, ×566 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $1.2k → $3.9k → $1.6k → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $847k (exactly $847,161)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 39
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,343 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $840k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

LumenTale: Memories of Trey 2026 · $847k Sea Walker Saga 2026 · EA · $20k On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero 2022 · $13k Tails of Glimmervale 2024 · $11k Between 2023 · $9.6k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero older $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Queen
Tails of Glimmervale older $8.99 41 90% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) Corebreak Interactive
Between older $6.99 46 69% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Artesign
The Creator $6.99 43 81% 1.3k $9.0k (exactly $9,017) Mark Miller
Virgin Simulator $4.99 30 36% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Ilmir Nasertdinov
Alma and the Fragments of Cursed Memories $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) wagasi biyori
На недельку до второго $4.99 26 100% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) UrbanWanderer
Nyaz $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Altoterras Corporation
Drop: Save the Forest $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Riccardo Giol, Games Greenhouse
LITTLE CAT TINY STRAYS · EA $8.99 6 83% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Phillip Burton
Archipelago: Island Survival $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrostFire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.