Should I ship a Mystery CRPG?
CRPG + Mystery
Of 59 developers who shipped a Mystery CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×1536 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 106 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,593) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $24,068) |
| Top 5% | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 59 |
| Released games | 138 |
| Announced | 106 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 26,532 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Drova - Forsaken Kin 2024 · $7.1M 
Back to the Dawn 2025 · $6.2M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M 
The Thaumaturge 2024 · $4.1M 
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
| | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | The Thaumaturge | older | $34.99 | 3,888 81% | 117k | $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) | Fool's Theory |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | Gamedec - Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 1,119 78% | 34k | $1.0M (exactly $1,006,764) | Anshar Studios |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | Sovereign Syndicate | older | $19.99 | 573 79% | 17k | $344k (exactly $343,628) | Crimson Herring Studios |
 | 我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live | $9.99 | 864 85% | 26k | $259k (exactly $258,941) | 番茄炖肉制作组 | |
 | All in Abyss: Judge the Fake | $15.99 | 375 54% | 11k | $180k (exactly $179,888) | ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground | |
 | CaseCracker3 | $12.99 | 359 84% | 11k | $140k (exactly $139,902) | BlackRobe | |
 | 这个CEO我当定了！ | $7.99 | 462 82% | 14k | $111k (exactly $110,741) | 叁石肆两 | |
 | Moves Of The Diamond Hand | · EA | $19.99 | 105 100% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Cosmo D Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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