Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings CRPG?

CRPG + Multiple Endings

Of 134 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 228 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×690 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 228 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 228 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 134
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $2.7k → $54k → $8.7k → $5.8k → $3.9k → $2.7k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 134
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283)
Developers, 2 yr 134
Released games 312
Announced 228
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 67,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 228 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game older $9.99 16,722 95% 502k $5.0M (exactly $5,011,583) Interplay Inc.
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
The Thaumaturge older $34.99 3,888 81% 117k $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) Fool's Theory
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG older $29.99 4,193 77% 126k $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) Dark Crystal Games
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios
咸鱼殿下 / My journey $11.99 1,979 85% 59k $712k (exactly $711,846) 大聪明工作室
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.