Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day CRPG?

CRPG + Modern

Of 20 developers who shipped a Modern-Day CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. Revenue is down 75% on the market, with 25 games announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $210 → $0 → $539 → $238 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,651)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,918,139)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 54
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Life Sim, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,157 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $540, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M High School Odyssey 2023 · $159k 这个CEO我当定了！ 2025 · $111k 明星志願2 2022 · $98k The Next Journey Of Life 2025 · $57k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
High School Odyssey older $8.99 591 92% 18k $159k (exactly $159,393) 傲雪小组
这个CEO我当定了！ $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
明星志願2 older $7.99 410 83% 12k $98k (exactly $98,277) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
The Next Journey Of Life $12.99 147 63% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) FOREVER GAME
Rogue Port - Blue Nightmare older $4.99 328 76% 9.8k $49k (exactly $49,102) Volens Nolens Games
桂花落 $4.99 250 93% 7.5k $37k (exactly $37,425) 脆报纸工作室
Sparkling Memories older $7.99 135 87% 4.1k $32k (exactly $32,360) 柿树文化
Bakahazard 1+2 $3.99 231 99% 6.9k $28k (exactly $27,651) 流比奈梦工厂
Judge, Jury, and Keyboard older $3.99 203 66% 6.1k $24k (exactly $24,299) Virtue Enforcer
幻觉病理 $5.99 36 75% 1.1k $6.5k (exactly $6,469) 水仙肉桂
SixteenPetals · EA $6.99 17 47% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Husky366Studio
Order of the Ivy $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Rust Games
牛马模拟器 · EA $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) BossyuGames
Long Black-Haired Schoolgirl Survival Simulation Game · EA $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) stripmine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.