Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval CRPG?

CRPG + Medieval

Of 97 developers who shipped a Medieval CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 195 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×402 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 195 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 195 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $449 → $1.9k → $1.2k → $11k → $1.7k → $4.1k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 269
Announced 195
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy RPG, Tactical RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 14,695 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 195 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Divinity II: Developer's Cut older $19.99 4,512 84% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,705,846) Larian Studios
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Ash of Gods: Redemption older $24.99 2,946 73% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,616) AurumDust
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Swordhaven: Iron Conspiracy $24.99 783 75% 23k $587k (exactly $587,015) AtomTeam
Banquet for Fools $19.99 936 89% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Hannah and Joseph Games
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.