Should I ship a Magic CRPG?
CRPG + Magic
Of 90 developers who shipped a Magic CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 197 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $24,875) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 90 |
| Released games | 290 |
| Announced | 197 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Character Customization
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 59,949 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M 
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition 2013 · $9.2M 
Drova - Forsaken Kin 2024 · $7.1M 
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition 2013 · $5.7M 
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition 2018 · $4.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
| | Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 15,395 92% | 462k | $9.2M (exactly $9,232,382) | Beamdog |
| | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
| | Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 9,478 92% | 284k | $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) | Beamdog |
| | Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 7,859 90% | 236k | $4.7M (exactly $4,713,042) | Beamdog |
 | Might & Magic X - Legacy | older | $29.99 | 3,178 65% | 95k | $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) | Ubisoft |
 | Divinity II: Developer's Cut | older | $19.99 | 4,512 84% | 135k | $2.7M (exactly $2,705,846) | Larian Studios |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,107 91% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,863,268) | Beamdog |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Border Town | $14.99 | 253 77% | 7.6k | $114k (exactly $113,774) | GoHoGames | |
 | Amelie falls over and over again ~ An endless week in Magic Academy | $13.99 | 257 80% | 7.7k | $108k (exactly $107,863) | AVANTGARDE | |
 | Entropy | · EA | $11.99 | 293 94% | 8.8k | $105k (exactly $105,392) | Lovely Hellplace |
 | Afallon | · EA | $11.99 | 262 79% | 7.9k | $94k (exactly $94,241) | Stargazing interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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