Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a CRPG FPS?

CRPG + FPS

Only 14 developers shipped a CRPG FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Romantic Escapades, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×5.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×2237 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $347k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $101,138)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, FPS
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 7,084 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
哎呦!这么多美女呀! $18.99 609 91% 18k $347k (exactly $346,947) Hangzhou Miqi Technology Co.,Ltd
Brigand: Oaxaca older $9.99 551 94% 17k $165k (exactly $165,135) Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Sof… (Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Software)
Tower of Mask $10.99 357 95% 11k $118k (exactly $117,703) Papertip Studio
每日亲亲洛丽塔 $8.99 375 74% 11k $101k (exactly $101,138) 夜羊社
Wizzerd Quest 2 $14.99 54 74% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Kondoorsoft
Kings Of Streets · EA older $4.99 132 53% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,760) TB Games
Simantik older $29.99 15 66% 450 $13k (exactly $13,496) Steel Thunder
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment
Cyberstray 101 $9.99 25 64% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) NoiseKitty
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
Witch Stories $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Stephen Scott Day
你的猫 $0.99 35 100% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) 数鱼工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.