Should I ship a Fantasy CRPG?
CRPG + Fantasy
Of 226 developers who shipped a Fantasy CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 410 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $840k, ×566 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 410 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) |
| Top 25% | $39k (exactly $39,234) |
| Top 5% | $847k (exactly $847,161) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 226 |
| Released games | 798 |
| Announced | 410 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- CRPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Character Customization
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 71,137 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 147 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 410 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + TabletopFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + IncrementalLong shot
- + FMVPoor odds
- + Card BattlerPoor odds
- + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds
- + SpacePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M 
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M 
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader 2023 · $51M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
| | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) | older | $29.99 | 40,829 85% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,733,851) | 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai |
 | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
 | Solasta: Crown of the Magister | older | $29.99 | 19,680 87% | 590k | $18M (exactly $17,706,096) | Tactical Adventures |
 | Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition | older | $19.99 | 28,146 77% | 844k | $17M (exactly $16,879,156) | Owlcat Games |
 | Pillars of Eternity | older | $29.99 | 16,990 87% | 510k | $15M (exactly $15,285,903) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Solasta II | · EA | $39.99 | 2,931 75% | 88k | $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) | Tactical Adventures |
 | Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars | $49.99 | 2,049 94% | 61k | $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) | KONAMI | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | GreedFall: The Dying World | $49.99 | 1,027 61% | 31k | $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) | Spiders | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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