Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian CRPG?

CRPG + Dystopian

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dystopian CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×68 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $87k → $599 → $31k → $599 (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,415)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,826)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,549)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 45
Announced 52
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Dialogue Heavy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Pathologic 2 2019 · $10M Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game 2023 · $4.9M Shadowrun Returns 2013 · $4.3M ATOM RPG Trudograd 2021 · $1.3M Vigilantes 2018 · $124k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathologic 2 older $34.99 9,554 92% 287k $10M (exactly $10,028,834) Ice-Pick Lodge
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Space Wreck older $16.99 170 88% 5.1k $87k (exactly $86,649) Pahris Entertainment SIA
Vampire Syndicate: Gangs of MoonFall · EA $19.99 111 71% 3.3k $67k (exactly $66,567) A Memory of Eternity
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
Abyss Of Pleasure $11.80 139 88% 4.2k $49k (exactly $49,206) Jpegsama
Slay or Fall $6.99 147 89% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) ostsergey
Joy Malignant $8.99 66 100% 2.0k $18k (exactly $17,800) Petros Anastasiadis
Get Up In The Night $6.99 52 98% 1.6k $11k (exactly $10,904) GUITN Studio
Work Life Balance $8.99 33 96% 990 $8.9k (exactly $8,900) LandUni Studio
Day Zero · EA $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Imdie Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.