Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon CRPG?

CRPG + Dragons

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dragon CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×739 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 28 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $159k → $25k → $599 → $2.5k → $1.2k → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,860)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 72
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 44,363 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Dungeon Alchemist 2022 · EA · $3.6M Divinity II: Developer's Cut 2012 · $2.7M Gedonia 2022 · $1.6M Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord 2024 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Divinity II: Developer's Cut older $19.99 4,512 84% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,705,846) Larian Studios
Gedonia older $14.99 3,659 87% 110k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,452) Kazakov Oleg
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
Crimson Tactics: The Rise of The White Banner older $29.99 245 46% 7.4k $220k (exactly $220,426) Black March Studios
Bahamut2-dragon's bride older $9.99 584 97% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) 王韋
Legends of Amberland: The Forgotten Crown older $19.99 284 94% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Silver Lemur Games
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Heart of Eternity $7.99 17 76% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Ukrainian Development Company
Landonia · EA $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Landonia RPG
Realms and Ruins: Abencor $11.99 7 85% 210 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) Bonedude Games Studios LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.