Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim CRPG?

CRPG + Dating Sim

Of 58 developers who shipped a Dating Sim CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×3.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×356 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 78 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $74k → $11k → $7.4k → $19k → $20k → $3.9k → $4.7k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,044)
Top 5% $533k (exactly $533,344)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 138
Announced 78
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Visual Novel, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 15,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M Romantic Escapades 2025 · $3.4M 侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) 2016 · $3.3M Agarest: Generations of War 2014 · $750k 咸鱼殿下 / My journey 2025 · $712k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
Agarest: Generations of War older $14.99 1,668 70% 50k $750k (exactly $750,100) Idea Factory
咸鱼殿下 / My journey $11.99 1,979 85% 59k $712k (exactly $711,846) 大聪明工作室
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
ghostpia Season One older $19.99 871 92% 26k $522k (exactly $522,339) Chosuido, 超水道
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
Workplace Fantasy older $9.99 1,522 83% 46k $456k (exactly $456,143) HappyCreator
Mary Skelter: Nightmares older $24.99 541 82% 16k $406k (exactly $405,588) Idea Factory
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
哎呦!这么多美女呀! $18.99 609 91% 18k $347k (exactly $346,947) Hangzhou Miqi Technology Co.,Ltd
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
👑Idle Calibur：Zero💕（选王之剑：零） $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
暴杀残雨之夜 $6.00 779 98% 23k $140k (exactly $140,220) 茶斩刀制作组

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.