Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting CRPG?

CRPG + Crafting

Of 47 developers who shipped a Crafting CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×261 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 96 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 96 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $13k → $14k → $3.1k → $18k → $1.5k → $2.1k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 5% $392k (exactly $391,713)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 115
Announced 96
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 7,439 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
UnderRail older $14.99 6,385 86% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,871,334) Stygian Software
Immortal Life older $16.99 3,853 79% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiFang Studio
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Gedonia older $14.99 3,659 87% 110k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,452) Kazakov Oleg
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Parking Tycoon: Business Simulator older $12.99 879 64% 26k $343k (exactly $342,546) Geekon
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
A Hero's Rest: An RPG Town Simulator $24.99 160 67% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Vanargand Games
Avernum 4: Greed and Glory $19.99 133 92% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Spiderweb Software
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.