Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + City Builder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a City Builder CRPG?

CRPG + City Builder

Only 11 developers shipped a City Builder CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Blackthorn Arena: Reforged, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.8k, ×4.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×441 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + City Builder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for CRPG + City Builder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Median $6.8k (exactly $6,834)
Top 25% $120k (exactly $119,952)
Top 5% $661k (exactly $661,235)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 26
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, City Builder
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 1,653 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.8k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Sword and Fairy Inn 2 older $19.99 2,013 49% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,207,196) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Immortal Family older $13.99 1,213 54% 36k $509k (exactly $509,096) 一起来修仙工作室
Parking Tycoon: Business Simulator older $12.99 879 64% 26k $343k (exactly $342,546) Geekon
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio
A Hero's Rest: An RPG Town Simulator $24.99 160 67% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Vanargand Games
REAL ESTATE Simulator - FROM BUM TO MILLIONAIRE older $12.99 175 44% 5.3k $68k (exactly $68,198) Geekon
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
KingSim older $9.99 189 83% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Fuzzy Pixel Game Studio
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Station Master RPG · EA $11.99 19 78% 570 $6.8k (exactly $6,834) Telegraph Studios
Alone: Shattered Tribes $10.99 10 90% 300 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Super Llama Games
Aldo: Memory of the Kingdom $6.99 7 57% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Meleiko
スローライフサバイバー/SlowLife Survivor $6.99 5 0% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MIZUBLUE GAMES
生计与沉冤 $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) XGame游戏工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.