Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure CRPG?

CRPG + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 72 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×326 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 122 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 122 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $17k → $8.8k → $479 → $3.0k → $6.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,485)
Top 5% $488k (exactly $488,286)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 187
Announced 122
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 10,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Gedonia older $14.99 3,659 87% 110k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,452) Kazakov Oleg
Vagrus - The Riven Realms older $29.99 1,746 84% 52k $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) Lost Pilgrims Studio
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Pocket Mirror ~ GoldenerTraum older $19.99 1,574 92% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) AstralShift, VisuStella
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
Don't FOOL ME, Beauties! $9.99 367 86% 11k $110k (exactly $109,990) Storytaco
Afallon · EA $11.99 262 79% 7.9k $94k (exactly $94,241) Stargazing interactive
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.