Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Crime
Should I ship a Crime Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Crime
Of 132 developers who shipped a Crime Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 247 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.0k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×791 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 247 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,166) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.0k (exactly $7,983) |
| Top 25% | $57k (exactly $56,577) |
| Top 5% | $497k (exactly $496,505) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 132 |
| Released games | 424 |
| Announced | 247 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Crime
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 15,718 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 247 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy 2019 · $32M 
Sanfu 2023 · $5.7M 
Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney Trilogy 2024 · $4.9M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
This Is the Police 2016 · $4.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $29.99 | 35,628 97% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,054,512) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Sanfu | older | $10.99 | 17,323 82% | 520k | $5.7M (exactly $5,711,393) | Shiying Studio |
| | Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $49.99 | 3,261 88% | 98k | $4.9M (exactly $4,890,522) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
 | Ace Attorney Investigations Collection | older | $39.99 | 3,401 96% | 102k | $4.1M (exactly $4,080,180) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Tangle Tower | older | $19.99 | 6,483 94% | 194k | $3.9M (exactly $3,887,855) | SFB Games |
 | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
 | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | Promise Mascot Agency | $24.99 | 2,569 96% | 77k | $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) | Kaizen Game Works | |
 | The Mermaid Mask | $19.99 | 2,776 99% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) | SFB Games | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest | $24.99 | 922 89% | 28k | $691k (exactly $691,223) | Team Tetrapod | |
 | Trials of Innocence | $16.99 | 1,308 91% | 39k | $667k (exactly $666,688) | 猫龙游戏 | |
 | Race of Life - Act 1 | $13.99 | 1,183 94% | 35k | $497k (exactly $496,505) | Underground Studio | |
 | The Shell Part III: Paradiso | $19.99 | 622 96% | 19k | $373k (exactly $373,013) | Innocent Grey | |
 | Demons' Timeline | $10.99 | 1,046 97% | 31k | $345k (exactly $344,866) | DigitalCats | |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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