Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Souls-like?

Souls-like + Crafting

Of 35 developers who shipped a Crafting Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×6.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×12878 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 76 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 76 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $11k → $899 → $7.8k → $20k → $8.5k → $22k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,759)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $19,291,367)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 87
Announced 76
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 193,548 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Grounded 2022 · $91M WILD HEARTS™ 2023 · $22M Grounded 2 2025 · EA · $19M Bleak Faith: Forsaken 2023 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Grounded older $39.99 75,755 90% 2.3M $91M (exactly $90,883,274) Obsidian Entertainment
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Bleak Faith: Forsaken older $29.99 2,839 75% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Archangel Studios
Fade to Silence older $29.99 1,032 62% 31k $928k (exactly $928,490) Black Forest Games
Windbound older $19.99 1,026 60% 31k $615k (exactly $615,292) 5 Lives Studios
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Dimraeth · EA $21.99 889 80% 27k $586k (exactly $586,473) Mudtek
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
DAIMON BLADES · EA $19.90 707 69% 21k $422k (exactly $422,079) StreumOn Studio
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
ENDALOR · EA $19.99 256 71% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Diorite Games
Deliria $9.99 136 61% 4.1k $41k (exactly $40,759) Linesway
Eydigard · EA $19.99 55 72% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Frostisen Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.