Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting JRPG?

JRPG + Crafting

Of 56 developers who shipped a Crafting JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1705 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 76 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 76 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $477k → $14k → $23k → $23k → $10k → $1.3k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $10k (exactly $10,294)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,689)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 169
Announced 76
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 23,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition older $39.99 10,446 92% 313k $13M (exactly $12,532,066) Square Enix
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 older $49.99 6,888 92% 207k $10M (exactly $10,329,934) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes older $49.99 3,164 75% 95k $4.7M (exactly $4,745,051) Rabbit & Bear Studios
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Bug Fables: The Everlasting Sapling older $19.99 5,198 97% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,117,241) Moonsprout Games
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline $18.99 622 72% 19k $354k (exactly $354,353) BBQ大好き

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.