Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Cooking game?

Cooking + Artificial Intelligence

Only 15 developers shipped an AI Cooking game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fast Food Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $73k, ×154 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $33k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×8192 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 154.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $213k → $32k (still earning) → $95k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $32k (exactly $32,311)
Median $73k (exactly $73,127)
Top 25% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,891,254)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 28
Announced 10
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 11,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $33k, median $73k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $33k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $24k · 29 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fast Food Simulator · EA $14.99 8,653 86% 260k $3.9M (exactly $3,891,254) No Ceiling Games
Shawarma Legend older $2.99 7,210 92% 216k $647k (exactly $646,737) Eyad Alshafei
Sunset Motel $18.99 728 77% 22k $415k (exactly $414,742) Efkey Studios
Chocolate Factory Simulator $19.99 355 72% 11k $213k (exactly $212,893) Games Incubator
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Bowling Alley Simulator $14.99 251 90% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Vulcron
Deep Blue Sushi · EA $14.99 212 75% 6.4k $95k (exactly $95,336) PaperPixel Games
WorldNeverland - Daily Life in the Elnea Kingdom - Another Life Adventure $29.99 92 78% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) althi Inc.
Night Rolls Cozy Store $9.99 244 89% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) Polytale Games
BM Love Cafe $7.99 204 77% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,899) zzzgame
Chicken Fries $11.99 90 65% 2.7k $32k (exactly $32,373) Turquoise Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.