Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking JRPG?

JRPG + Cooking

Only 13 developers shipped a Cooking JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bloomtown: A Different Story, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $34k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1705 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $14k → $753k → $164k → $34k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Median $34k (exactly $33,583)
Top 25% $203k (exactly $203,207)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 29
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Cooking; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,822 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $34k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Cuisineer older $24.99 1,820 76% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,454) BattleBrew Productions
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
SunnySide older $19.99 913 67% 27k $548k (exactly $547,526) Aftabi Games
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
Terra Memoria older $19.99 384 85% 12k $230k (exactly $230,285) La Moutarde
HYKE:Northern Light(s) $27.99 242 73% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games I… (Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games Inc.)
Dragon Song Tavern: Cozy & Adventurous $19.90 274 71% 8.2k $164k (exactly $163,578) Etherous Games Limited
Midnight Ramen older $11.99 294 96% 8.8k $106k (exactly $105,752) Cointinue Games
Body Sushi $10.99 130 90% 3.9k $43k (exactly $42,861) AOTINA Technology Innovations Ltd.
Dosa Divas $19.99 56 94% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) Outerloop Games
Welcome to Planet E1d0r4d0! $8.99 119 68% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) LuluGames
GladiEATers · EA $14.99 69 92% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) MilkBubblesGames
Deepfried in Deepspace $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Medium Well Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.