Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Cooking game?

Cooking + Shop Keeper

Of 117 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 268 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×593 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 268 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 268 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $11k → $17k → $1.4k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,247)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,982)
Top 5% $282k (exactly $281,723)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 138
Announced 268
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 645% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking, Shop Keeper; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Life Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 9,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 268 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
The Chef's Shift $12.99 1,948 97% 58k $759k (exactly $759,136) Panitia GameDev
Winkeltje: The Little Shop older $14.99 1,612 88% 48k $725k (exactly $724,916) Sassybot
Boba Cafe Simulator $15.99 1,192 92% 36k $572k (exactly $571,802) Caikemi
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
SkyBrew: Entropic Strategist $17.99 522 75% 16k $282k (exactly $281,723) ATRIC Games
Prison Boss VR older $19.99 414 87% 12k $248k (exactly $248,276) TREBUCHET
Cafe Business Manager · EA $14.99 330 86% 9.9k $148k (exactly $148,401) Caos Interactive
Not Monday Cafe $8.99 539 94% 16k $145k (exactly $145,368) Sunny Syrup Studio
Happy's Humble Burger Cult $9.99 477 86% 14k $143k (exactly $142,957) Scythe Dev Team
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.