Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Cooking game?

Cooking + Post-apocalyptic

Only 19 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Cooking game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Doloc Town, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×38 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×3023 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $3.4k → $203k → $132k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Median $24k (exactly $23,802)
Top 25% $212k (exactly $211,525)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 32
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Cooking; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.5k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.5k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
UNDYING - "KINGDOM" older $19.99 1,688 78% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,294) Vanimals
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
Cook Serve Forever $29.99 333 69% 10k $300k (exactly $299,600) Vertigo Gaming Inc.
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
HYKE:Northern Light(s) $27.99 242 73% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games I… (Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games Inc.)
Project: Mist · EA $17.99 257 72% 7.7k $139k (exactly $138,703) Chicken Launcher
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev
Sky End Market · EA $18.99 164 96% 4.9k $93k (exactly $93,431) Andymente
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.