Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Cooking game?

Cooking + Mystery

Of 32 developers who shipped a Mystery Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×467 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 64 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $142k → $18k → $628 → $2.2k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,960)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,583)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $221,911)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 53
Announced 64
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Cooking Companions older $14.99 1,081 93% 32k $486k (exactly $486,126) Deer Dream Studios
Kiosk $3.99 2,547 88% 76k $305k (exactly $304,876) Vivi
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Magical Delicacy older $24.99 240 77% 7.2k $180k (exactly $179,928) Skaule
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games
Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy older $14.99 335 90% 10k $151k (exactly $150,650) HeR Interactive
Tostchu $7.99 594 84% 18k $142k (exactly $142,382) Ravenscape Collective
The Herbalist older $5.99 648 93% 19k $116k (exactly $116,446) Moonworks
[Bober Bros] The Hole $2.99 779 85% 23k $70k (exactly $69,876) BOBER BROS
Meat Grinder: Hotdog Simulator $7.99 163 80% 4.9k $39k (exactly $39,071) Panic Panda
The Supper: New Blood $9.99 120 88% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,964) White Blanket Games
The Dream Within $6.99 122 81% 3.7k $26k (exactly $25,583) Roaming of Little Hammer
Tales from The Dancing Moon $17.99 34 88% 1.0k $18k (exactly $18,350) DjMonkey
Serve Or Die $4.99 85 88% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Dead Tape Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.