Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Cooking game?

Cooking + Incremental

Of 49 developers who shipped an Incremental Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $320; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×920 the market median. Revenue is up 855% on the market; 65 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 855% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $807 → $359 → $539 → $748 → $10k → $1.7k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $313 (exactly $313)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $437k (exactly $437,210)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 113
Announced 65
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 855% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 7,976 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Ravenous Devils older $4.99 9,477 92% 284k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,707) Bad Vices Games
Scale the Depths $9.99 1,881 88% 56k $564k (exactly $563,736) Glass Gecko Games
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Grindstone older $19.99 244 93% 7.3k $146k (exactly $146,327) Capybara Games
Midori no Kaori $9.99 464 94% 14k $139k (exactly $139,061) TheLaba
Midnight Ramen older $11.99 294 96% 8.8k $106k (exactly $105,752) Cointinue Games
Cafe Maid - Hentai Edition older $19.99 100 71% 3.0k $60k (exactly $59,970) Sexy Hentai Games Factory
Yakiniku simulator older $4.99 397 94% 12k $59k (exactly $59,431) SECRET CHARACTER, Cuddle Code, REBUILD… (SECRET CHARACTER, Cuddle Code, REBUILD GAMES)
Keep Me Gifted $3.99 175 54% 5.3k $21k (exactly $20,948) Merlot Games
More Sushi! $2.99 186 87% 5.6k $17k (exactly $16,684) pixelqube
Slice To Meet You $3.99 129 78% 3.9k $15k (exactly $15,441) Lumamind Studio
Conradito Cafézito $4.99 92 86% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) Conrado Saud
Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator $6.99 63 95% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) DuckMemeticsGames
Pizza Restaurant Together · EA $14.99 28 78% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) FunPlay Dev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.