Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Cooking game?

Cooking + Fantasy

Of 85 developers who shipped a Fantasy Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 225 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×3530 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 225 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 225 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $11k → $719 → $48k → $22k → $7.0k → $3.5k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 195
Announced 225
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Cooking; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 29,404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 225 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Creature Kitchen $7.99 9,046 99% 271k $2.2M (exactly $2,168,326) The Rat Zone
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot
Restaurats $19.90 1,640 89% 49k $979k (exactly $979,080) toR Studio
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Doraemon Dorayaki Shop Story $19.99 468 98% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.