Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Deckbuilding?

Cooking + Deckbuilding

Of 27 developers who shipped a Cooking Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×755 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $240 (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,737)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,987)
Top 5% $359k (exactly $358,621)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 34
Announced 55
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 4,543 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Beastro $19.99 598 92% 18k $359k (exactly $358,621) Timberline Studio
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Big Winner $12.99 550 82% 17k $214k (exactly $214,335) iFAction Studio
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Kitchen Crisis older $14.99 311 74% 9.3k $140k (exactly $139,857) Team Samoyed
Goblin Sushi · EA $9.99 404 89% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Old Cake Factory
Hungry Horrors · EA $14.99 209 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) Clumsy Bear Studio
Don't Let It Starve $7.99 189 95% 5.7k $45k (exactly $45,303) Eduardo Scarpato
Magic Inn · EA $14.99 68 82% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Purpledoor Studios
A la Card $14.99 68 97% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Shook Loose

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.