Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Combat Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Racing Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Combat Racing

Only 14 developers shipped a Combat Racing Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jeepney Simulator 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Combat Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $89 → $6.5k → $180 (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Combat Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $32,094)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 58
Announced 21
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Combat Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle physics plus weapons and AI drivers

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Combat Racing
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 277 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $6.6k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator older $14.99 7,770 95% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,494,169) Luminite
Touge Shakai · EA older $14.99 1,107 85% 33k $498k (exactly $497,818) Raiyon Studios Pte Ltd
Initial Drift Online older $4.99 3,206 77% 96k $480k (exactly $479,938) RewindApp
Dash Dash World older $24.99 147 74% 4.4k $110k (exactly $110,206) MOTIONX STUDIO
AI Drone Simulator older $14.99 206 83% 6.2k $93k (exactly $92,638) Diophante Studio
Duck Life 9: The Flock older $9.99 190 83% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Wix Games
FLASHOUT 3 older $19.99 55 61% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Jujubee S.A.
Jeepney Simulator 2 $8.99 119 91% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) Spacezero Interactive
J15 Jet Fighter VR (歼15舰载机) · EA older $9.99 44 47% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Magicvalley Studio
Code Velocity $2.99 99 100% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) STIM GAMES
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday
Echo Wars - Road Rage $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Ivanovich Games
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Racing: Storm Chase $1.99 4 25% 120 $239 (exactly $239) ChenZepeng
Yuki Onna: Snowball Fight! $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) YStar
Car Race Pro Simulator · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.