Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat JRPG?

JRPG + Combat

Of 138 developers who shipped a Combat JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 255 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2215 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 255 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 255 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 138
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $9.0k → $8.1k → $3.2k → $12k → $2.5k → $5.7k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 138
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,555)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922)
Developers, 2 yr 138
Released games 388
Announced 255
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 28,418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 255 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tales of ARISE 2023 · $41M SCARLET NEXUS 2021 · $25M DragonSword : Awakening 2026 · $9.5M DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake 2024 · $7.2M Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes 2024 · $4.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake $59.99 4,010 75% 120k $7.2M (exactly $7,216,797) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes older $49.99 3,164 75% 95k $4.7M (exactly $4,745,051) Rabbit & Bear Studios
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life older $19.99 7,017 92% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
Yakuza 5 Remastered older $19.99 6,199 88% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,717,540) RGG Studio
Yakuza 4 Remastered older $19.99 5,657 91% 170k $3.4M (exactly $3,392,503) RGG Studio
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.