Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Collectathon

Of 24 developers who shipped a Collectathon Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×90 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $29k → $269 → $1.8k → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,253)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,662)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 66
Announced 41
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.2k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Temtem 2022 · $42M DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince 2024 · $1.4M Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection 2026 · $788k LABYRINTH OF TOUHOU - GENSOKYO AND THE HEAVEN-PIERCING TREE 2021 · $327k HyperRogue 2015 · $121k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
LABYRINTH OF TOUHOU - GENSOKYO AND THE HEAVEN-PIERCING TREE older $29.99 363 89% 11k $327k (exactly $326,591) Nise-Eikoku Studio, CUBETYPE
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom older $19.99 161 73% 4.8k $97k (exactly $96,552) Rideon,Inc.
Siralim older $9.99 201 83% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) Thylacine Studios
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Tokaido older $11.99 147 68% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Funforge
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts
Idle Kitty $4.99 64 82% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) 狮子
moonchrome. $10.99 22 95% 660 $7.3k (exactly $7,253) upa=宇羽
Totto's Magic Soup $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) アルネコデザイン
Brominion $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Hyralism
Power heros saga $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) 超巨大战喵
Animal Run Relay $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) youdoyou.motto

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.