Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Collectathon

Of 24 developers who shipped a Collectathon Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8472 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 57 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 57 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.8k → $209k → $45k → $6.3k → $838 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,420)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 60
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Collectathon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 19,260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Siralim 3 older $14.99 881 94% 26k $396k (exactly $396,186) Thylacine Studios
Botworld Odyssey $25.00 279 76% 8.4k $209k (exactly $209,250) Featherweight Games
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Siralim 2 older $14.99 427 92% 13k $192k (exactly $192,022) Thylacine Studios
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Fantasy Online 2 · EA $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) Pixel Games LLC
Creature Keeper $14.99 101 67% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Fervir Games
OUTCLAW $24.99 44 93% 1.3k $33k (exactly $32,987) Moss Monkey
Chronomon · EA $9.99 79 83% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Stone Golem Studios
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Pipkin $10.99 32 78% 960 $11k (exactly $10,550) Gregdude

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.