Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 55 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 122 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 122 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.3k → $1.9k → $2.4k → $5.1k → $16k → $1.4k (still earning) → $105 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,141)
Top 5% $235k (exactly $234,989)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 147
Announced 122
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 29,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Pathway older $15.99 1,908 76% 57k $915k (exactly $915,268) Robotality
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
King Of The Castle older $9.99 1,403 90% 42k $420k (exactly $420,479) Tributary Games
Earthling's Undertaking older $10.99 930 64% 28k $307k (exactly $306,621) Current Games
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Robot girl's dream -RobotBattleChampionship- $16.99 196 95% 5.9k $100k (exactly $99,901) DeskClub Games
Virtual Ties: Isekaijoucho Träumerei $34.99 93 91% 2.8k $98k (exactly $97,622) ENTERGRAM,INC.
Spear Song · EA $14.99 170 88% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Divovision Games
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Draw Steel · EA $19.99 67 98% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) Verisim, MCDM
Away From Home $17.99 70 70% 2.1k $38k (exactly $37,779) Squishy, Cameron Smith-Randick
The Book of Outcasts $9.99 101 70% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) kamti

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.