Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Souls-like?

Souls-like + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 23 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×419 the market median. Revenue is up 16155% on the market; 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 16155% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.2k → $299 → $891 → $12k → $122k (still earning) → $41k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,759)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 59
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 16155% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 117,528 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
To Be or Not to Be older $12.99 8,035 89% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) Team K
Hooked on You: A Dead by Daylight Dating Sim™ older $9.99 6,039 90% 181k $1.8M (exactly $1,809,888) Psyop
Skoof Simulator older $29.99 935 83% 28k $841k (exactly $841,220) PropilGames
Yusetsu older $16.99 1,262 88% 38k $643k (exactly $643,241) DSGame
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
There Is No Light: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 72% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Zelart
The Last Oricru - Final Cut older $19.99 557 67% 17k $334k (exactly $334,033) GoldKnights
The Married Woman Nextdoor - Creampie SEX Beside Her Husband $9.99 933 86% 28k $280k (exactly $279,620) AibanWork
Laid-Back Camp - Virtual - Lake Motosu older $19.99 362 80% 11k $217k (exactly $217,091) Gemdrops, Inc.
ZENONIA 1 $9.99 430 80% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd.
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Deliria $9.99 136 61% 4.1k $41k (exactly $40,759) Linesway
Big Beautiful Women: Giantess Dating Action $19.99 58 93% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Rakuen Soft
Beauty’s Target $8.99 126 69% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,982) Beauty’s Target
Eydigard · EA $19.99 55 72% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Frostisen Studio
Three Wishes $11.99 75 98% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) Kyuppin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.