Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 32 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×178 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 92 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 92 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $142k → $3.3k → $4.0k → $7.7k → $3.2k → $239 → $8.9k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,869)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $111,544)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 105
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Choose Your Own Adventure; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 26,125 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
AI Roguelite older $14.99 597 83% 18k $268k (exactly $268,471) Max Loh
Loren The Amazon Princess older $19.99 436 83% 13k $261k (exactly $261,469) Winter Wolves
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Athenian Rhapsody older $14.99 320 91% 9.6k $144k (exactly $143,904) Nico Papalia
Path of the Midnight Sun older $19.99 237 83% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Studio Daimon
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut $19.99 175 53% 5.3k $105k (exactly $104,947) Wisageni Studio
Epic Manager - Create Your Own Adventuring Agency! older $17.99 184 61% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) ManaVoid Entertainment
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists $24.99 76 78% 2.3k $57k (exactly $56,977) A Sharp
RLLL: Tower of Choices $9.99 77 72% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Team5D
SkullX: Aibohphobia $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives
Beggar's Road $7.99 37 72% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) Coldframe Studios
Thieves Of Dingirra $24.99 11 81% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Winter Wolves
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.