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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure JRPG?
JRPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 70 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1762 the market median. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 98 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,617) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) |
| Top 25% | $51k (exactly $50,661) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 70 |
| Released games | 221 |
| Announced | 98 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- JRPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 41,542 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M 
WitchSpring R 2023 · $7.2M 
Word Game 2022 · $6.2M 
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo 2023 · $3.7M 
Magical Princess 2026 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
| | WitchSpring R | older | $34.99 | 6,858 95% | 206k | $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) | KIWIWALKS |
| | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
| | PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo | older | $19.99 | 6,123 95% | 184k | $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) | Square Enix |
| | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse | $24.99 | 2,169 95% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) | Square Enix | |
 | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | The Test | older | $1.99 | 19,599 96% | 588k | $1.2M (exactly $1,170,060) | Randumb Studios |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | Yusetsu | older | $16.99 | 1,262 88% | 38k | $643k (exactly $643,241) | DSGame |
 | Happy Island Fantasy | $14.99 | 1,186 88% | 36k | $533k (exactly $533,344) | HappyCreator | |
 | The Use of Life | $19.99 | 764 90% | 23k | $458k (exactly $458,171) | だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games | |
 | Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline | $18.99 | 622 72% | 19k | $354k (exactly $354,353) | BBQ大好き | |
 | Soul Touch | $9.99 | 1,007 97% | 30k | $302k (exactly $301,798) | URAYAHA.TECH | |
 | 緋月仙行錄 | $19.99 | 454 57% | 14k | $272k (exactly $272,264) | 月光草 | |
 | ZENONIA 1 | $9.99 | 430 80% | 13k | $129k (exactly $128,871) | Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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