Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Fishing + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 9 developers shipped a Fishing Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Caravanners , made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×809 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 28 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $348k → $6.6k → $450 → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $384k (exactly $384,266)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 35
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 28,375 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Harvest Moon: The Winds of Anthos older $49.99 370 73% 11k $555k (exactly $554,889) Appci Inc., Natsume Inc.
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Slow living with Princess older $19.99 580 87% 17k $348k (exactly $347,826) KADOKAWA, TSUKURITE.
Tales of Morrow older $14.99 96 44% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) GameMechanic
Arctic Anxiety · EA older $2.99 285 55% 8.6k $26k (exactly $25,565) Arctic Studio
e-River Cabin Journal older $9.99 54 50% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Wilderness Journal Games
Survive or Thrive older $1.99 233 98% 7.0k $14k (exactly $13,910) Randumb Studios
Castaway Hand $9.99 22 36% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) BAOCHUAN
All That Glitters $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) lestudiodetrop
Missing The Point $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Burner Phone
DarkShine · EA $3.00 5 100% 150 $450 (exactly $450) DScorp
Fireside Friends $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) KODgames
Nick's Text Adventure $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) GXPlay
Enclaved $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Digital Platforms Co.
竿影判赎·噬月之饵 $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) B站刘杜阳哥

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.