Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Chess

Of 67 developers who shipped a Chess Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 50 developers shipped in the last year and 101 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 101 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.1k → $6.8k → $6.0k → $59 → $180 → $898 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $28,781)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 187
Announced 101
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Chess; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,503 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $28k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel 2020 · $2.9M Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate 2022 · $1.8M Frozen Synapse 2011 · $831k Chess Ultra 2017 · $714k Sex Chess 2022 · $319k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Sex Chess older $9.99 1,064 78% 32k $319k (exactly $318,881) Evil Boobs Cult
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Pawnbarian older $9.99 450 91% 14k $135k (exactly $134,865) j4nw
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Checkmate Showdown older $19.99 192 80% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) BadRez Games
Cat Chess $6.99 456 87% 14k $96k (exactly $95,623) Capricia Labs
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Infinity $9.99 84 63% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Rockwater Games
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Shattered Chess $7.99 28 100% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Arti Works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.