Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Logic game?

Logic + Chess

Of 40 developers who shipped a Chess Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 29 developers shipped in the last year and 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $955 → $1.6k → $15k → $628 → $838 → $598 → $119 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,571)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 126
Announced 39
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Logic, Chess; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Chessformer older $4.99 306 100% 9.2k $46k (exactly $45,808) Robert Alvarez
3D Math - Ultra older $4.99 218 92% 6.5k $33k (exactly $32,635) Big Mind Games 9000
Miracle Sudoku older $4.99 174 94% 5.2k $26k (exactly $26,048) Studio Goya
Chess older $7.99 101 78% 3.0k $24k (exactly $24,210) Popoko VM Games
KNIGHTS older $0.99 777 93% 23k $23k (exactly $23,077) Arzola's
The Rookery older $9.99 77 94% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Glyder Games
Sudoku Zenkai / 数独全卡 older $3.99 177 88% 5.3k $21k (exactly $21,187) ImaginationOverflow
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
PANIK $9.99 30 100% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) ChumasGames
Who Takes The Crown? $7.99 37 83% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) devthedoug
Go $7.99 25 72% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Popoko VM Games
Mate'Morphosis $2.99 49 95% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,395) WiseMonkeES, Bruder Studio
Black Pieces Move First $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Enchant Games
Just Chess $11.99 8 100% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Pupugames
Chinese Chess - Xiangqi $7.99 8 100% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Popoko VM Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.