Do I ship it?

GamesCharacter CustomizationCharacter Customization + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Character Customization game?

Character Customization + Post-apocalyptic

Of 117 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Character Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 333 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×4905 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 333 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 333 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Character Customization + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.4k → $1.4k → $9.3k → $3.2k → $2.4k → $7.2k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Character Customization + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $64,832)
Top 5% $3.1M (exactly $3,080,573)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 342
Announced 333
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Character Customization; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 536,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 333 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Character Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  2. + Real-TimeStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  3. + Music-Based Procedural GenerationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  4. + TransportationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  5. + MinigamesFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.2k · 13 announced
  7. + BikesFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  8. + IdlerFair210 devs · median $1.2k · 286 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair146 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  10. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $836 · 32 announced
  11. + Precision PlatformerFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  12. + TypingFair27 devs · median $539 · 38 announced

All 250 pairs on the Character Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Killing Floor 2 older $29.99 87,158 88% 2.6M $78M (exactly $78,416,053) Tripwire Interactive
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Hyper Light Breaker · EA $29.99 3,424 52% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,080,573) Heart Machine
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.