Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game JRPG?

JRPG + Card Game

Of 27 developers who shipped a Card Game JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×551 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 56 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 56 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $37k → $38k → $47k → $54k → $10k → $23k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $5.2k (exactly $5,242)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $345,755)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 101
Announced 56
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,245 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY VIII - REMASTERED older $19.99 4,822 75% 145k $2.9M (exactly $2,891,753) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY VIII older $11.99 7,874 87% 236k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,278) Square Enix
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
NEOVERSE older $19.99 2,882 84% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,728,335) Tinogames Inc.
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Voice of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars older $29.99 1,277 80% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,917) Square Enix
Yohane the Parhelion - NUMAZU in the MIRAGE - older $29.99 685 90% 21k $616k (exactly $616,294) BeXide Inc.
Succubus★Connect! older $24.99 637 78% 19k $478k (exactly $477,559) capture1
ISEKAI QUEST older $3.99 3,679 85% 110k $440k (exactly $440,376) Studio Ginkgo
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
Lythia: Sigil of Lust $24.99 109 75% 3.3k $82k (exactly $81,717) capture 1
The Girl's Moving Castle $9.99 181 88% 5.4k $54k (exactly $54,246) Destined game Studio
Project: AHNO's Ark $12.99 120 92% 3.6k $47k (exactly $46,764) PHOSEPO
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Dark Sky $19.99 53 66% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Ganymede Games
Echo Generation 2 $24.99 41 73% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Cococucumber

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.